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Why Chase Storms When CE Data Predicts the Weather?

Although we have written several Insight Flashes this month highlighting how our CE WeatherOptics data measures the weather’s impact on recent sales for different businesses, the best is yet to come!  In today’s Insight Flash, we look at how our CE WeatherOptics data can be used to frontrun the weather by forecasting future sales impact.

Over the next two weeks, gas and propane companies are likely to see the biggest sales lift due to weather.  Event and attraction companies are also likely to gain more visitors with better temperatures and few storms on the horizon.  Nice weather means consumers are more likely to go out, however, and almost all of the companies seeing the most negative sales impact due to weather are delivery services.

Ranked Sales Impact

Note: Data pulled 7/23/2021 for forecast through 7/29/2021; “forecast” includes impact on future credit card data not yet received; NSA, BFAM, and TMV-ETR excluded from top positive change due to sample issues

A time series reveals the different impacts on event and attraction companies over the forecast period. The data suggests Live Nation concerts will be most impacted on Sundays, where they lead Cedar Fair and Eventbrite in forecasted positive weather impact. Eventbrite in general is forecast to see more positive impact over the period than Cedar Fair, though the impact advantage is larger at the beginning of the forecast period.

Attraction Forecast Impact

Note: Data pulled 7/23/2021; “forecast” includes impact on future credit card data not yet received

For Eventbrite, the weather uplift is concentrated in a few states.  The Southwest of the US has an especially strong weather boost for EB.  New Mexico sees the biggest uplift, with Nevada and California also in the top five biggest uplift states.

EB National Weather Forecast Impact

Note: Data pulled 7/24/2021 for forecast through 7/29/2021; “forecast” includes impact on future credit card data not yet received