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CE Macro Hits

Consumer Edge Macro data has once again proven predictive of Government-reported unadjusted Retail Sales data, anticipating the sharp acceleration in retail sales growth reported this morning.

  • Topline Retail & Food Services accelerated +680 bps vs. CE data acceleration +640 bps.
  • This is the first meaningful acceleration since growth turned positive in June, a sign that the economy is actually moving forward and not just returning to the pre-pandemic status quo.
  • Retail & Food (ex. Motor and Gas) accelerated +580 bps vs. CE data acceleration +630 bps.
  • Given that August showed slower growth trends than July, the resumption of faster acceleration is a highly positive indicator.
  • Retail accelerated +730 bps vs. CE data acceleration +630 bps.
  • Pent-up demand may be a key driver, as this growth rate is higher than even 2019 growth rates.

CE Macro Signal aggregates 98% of CE panel spend across 4 census regions, 9 census divisions and 34 NAICS industry codes to provide a near real-time view into total category consumer spending by geography.