Consumer Edge Macro data has once again proven predictive of Government-reported unadjusted Retail Sales data, anticipating the sharp acceleration in retail sales growth reported this morning.
- Topline Retail & Food Services accelerated +680 bps vs. CE data acceleration +640 bps.
- This is the first meaningful acceleration since growth turned positive in June, a sign that the economy is actually moving forward and not just returning to the pre-pandemic status quo.
- Retail & Food (ex. Motor and Gas) accelerated +580 bps vs. CE data acceleration +630 bps.
- Given that August showed slower growth trends than July, the resumption of faster acceleration is a highly positive indicator.
- Retail accelerated +730 bps vs. CE data acceleration +630 bps.
- Pent-up demand may be a key driver, as this growth rate is higher than even 2019 growth rates.
CE Macro Signal aggregates 98% of CE panel spend across 4 census regions, 9 census divisions and 34 NAICS industry codes to provide a near real-time view into total category consumer spending by geography.